Treasuries Erase Post-BoJ Gains to Settle Lower Amid Rising Oil Prices
Newsquawk ·
US Treasury prices retreated from earlier gains sparked by the Bank of Japan's rate decision, eventually settling lower as crude oil prices climbed. The BoJ raised interest rates by 25bps in a 7-2 vote, leaving the door open for future hikes while showing no immediate rush to tighten further. Treasuries steadily declined throughout the session, driving a bear-flattening of the yield curve, which coincided with reports that Saudi Arabia will extend its crude delivery suspensions to Europe through October. By the close, the 2-year yield rose 7.5bps to 4.745%, the 5-year added 7.2bps to 4.858%, the 10-year increased 6.5bps to 5.004%, and the 30-year advanced 4.6bps to 5.336%. Meanwhile, the December T-note futures contract (Z6) settled 11 ticks lower at 105-26+.
AI 시장 분석
The US Treasury market initially rose immediately after the BOJ's 25bp rate hike, but turned to selling pressure due to oil price upward pressure driven by Saudi Arabia's halt of crude oil supplies to Europe in October, pushing the 10-year yield to 5.004%. As a result, the yield curve showed bear-flattening. Investors should monitor inflation pressures stemming from rising Treasury yields and crude supply disruptions.
상승 영향
- Banks — Because net interest margin improvement and net interest income (NII) growth are expected due to rising Treasury yields (10-year breaking 5.004%) and surging short-term yields.
- Energy — Because price upward pressure is expected to persist amid growing supply shortage concerns stemming from Saudi Arabia's October crude supply halt to Europe and export disruption issues.
하락 영향
- Bonds — Because Treasury futures (Z6) fell 11 ticks and yields surged across all maturities, including the 2-year (+7.5bps) and 10-year (+6.5bps), causing bond prices to drop significantly.
- Real Estate — Because if mortgage rates rise in tandem with Treasury yields, housing affordability will shrink and financing costs will increase.
- Growth Stocks — Because the risk-free rate of return surpassing 5% increases the discount rate for future cash flows' present value, amplifying valuation burdens.
DYAX 전담 분석
US Treasury prices fell (yields rose) as inflation pressures were highlighted in conjunction with news of Saudi Arabia's crude supply disruptions. The 2-year yield rose by 7.5bp to 4.745% and the 10-year yield rose by 6.5bp to 5.004%, intensifying upward pressure on yields centered on short-term maturities.
If oil prices rise further in the future, the Fed's hawkish stance could be reinforced, adding downward pressure on the bond market. Key indicators to watch are the Middle East crude supply situation and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
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