BoC Governor Macklem Warns US Tariffs Could Halve Q4 Growth Below 1%

Newsquawk · 2026-09-21

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem stated that if newly imposed United States tariffs remain in effect, economic expansion for the fourth quarter could be cut roughly in half, dropping below the 1% threshold. He noted that if crude prices sustain levels near USD 100 per barrel, consumer price inflation is likely to climb in the months ahead due to compromised global refining infrastructure. Nevertheless, policymakers have not yet observed clear signals that elevated energy costs are transmitting broadly into other goods and services. When formulating monetary policy, the central bank aims to look past temporary oil price shocks while remaining vigilant against persistent inflationary trends. Furthermore, Governor Macklem highlighted mounting signs that Canadian enterprises are beginning to adjust to US trade barriers, and he anticipates that labor force growth will hover near zero over the next few years.

AI 시장 분석

BoC Governor Macklem warned that new US tariffs could cut Q4 growth in half to below 1%. He also noted that oil prices near $100 a barrel could drive inflation higher, diagnosing an unusual surge in fuel costs due to hits on global refining facilities. However, he added that there is still limited evidence of high oil prices spreading to other goods and services. Investors should closely monitor tariff risks, the inflation trajectory driven by rising oil prices, and changes in monetary policy.

상승 영향

Crude Oil — Maintaining oil prices around $100 per barrel and global refining facility damage are likely to improve the profitability of energy production companies.
Energy — As soaring fuel costs and a high oil price environment persist, the cash generation capability of related energy sector companies can be strengthened.

하락 영향

Stock Market — There is a risk that Q4 growth will be cut in half to below 1% due to maintained US tariffs, acting as downward pressure on the broader stock market.
Consumer Goods — As fuel cost increases and tariff burdens mount, consumer purchasing power weakens, raising concerns over slowed earnings for related companies.
Chemicals — Global refining facility damage and high oil prices sharply increase cost burdens, risking margin compression.

DYAX 전담 분석

Persisting US tariffs and upward pressure on oil prices act as dual factors exacerbating the slowdown of the Canadian economy and inflationary pressures. In particular, the possibility of Q4 growth dropping below 1% exerts direct downward pressure on corporate earnings and consumer sentiment.

Under future scenarios, growth stocks may weaken due to stagflation concerns stemming from prolonged tariffs and surging oil prices, while the possibility of additional rate hikes to hedge against inflation could have a limited impact on bank stocks. Key monitoring indicators are US tariff negotiation trends, Canada's monthly inflation rates, and employment data.

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