ECB's Lagarde says that thus far "we are seeing energy support from government in the 0.1% of GDP range"
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ECB's Lagarde says that thus far "we are seeing energy support from government in the 0.1% of GDP range" US President Trump's administration is in favour of an announcement of a early harvest deal with Mexico before the US Midterms, Politico reports; source adds "the stage is set" for a deal Leading researchers at OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) have urged governments to regulate AI systems capable of self-improvement, WSJ reports The distinction that has mattered in past episodes is between small, targeted transfers and broad price caps; the former add modestly to demand while leaving relative prices largely intact, the latter suppress measured inflation in the near term while storing up both fiscal cost and a re-acceleration when measures lapse. A figure in the range described is at the contained end of that spectrum, which historically has been read as consistent with the existing inflation path rather than a reason to reprice it. What has tended to move rates in comparable commentary is any hint that support is being scaled up or made untargeted, since that shifts the fiscal impulse the Governing Council must offset. The follow-ons are whether national budgets confirm this scale, whether measures carry expiry dates, and whether other Council members frame the same numbers as a disinflationary help or a demand-side complication. As color on the fiscal backdrop rather than guidance on the next decision, the signal is incremental.
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