HSBC Lowers 2026 Gold Forecast to USD 4,490/oz, Sees Potential Bottom
Newsquawk ·
HSBC has revised its average gold price projection for 2026 down to USD 4,490 per ounce from its previous estimate of USD 4,560 per ounce, noting that the precious metal may encounter additional downward pressure in the near term while simultaneously approaching a market bottom. In parallel, Bank of England policymaker Mann remarked that UK financial markets have priced in a heightened risk premium following the escalation of the Middle East conflict, whereas the French budget watchdog characterized the nation's 2027 growth outlook as excessively optimistic. Financial analysts point out that pairing a downward forecast revision with suggestions of a market floor typically indicates that selling is driven by positioning liquidation rather than deteriorating fundamentals. While this report functions primarily as a forecasting note rather than a definitive rating action, market participants will be closely monitoring whether competing institutions follow suit with similar consensus revisions.
AI 시장 분석
HSBC has lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 from $4,560 to $4,490/oz. While short-term downward pressure may persist, some analyses suggest it is nearing a bottom. Investors should maintain a conservative approach, closely monitoring pricing factors such as future real interest rates and Chinese demand.
하락 영향
- Gold — HSBC lowered its 2026 average forecast to $4,490/oz, increasing short-term downward pressure.
DYAX 전담 분석
HSBC's downward revision of its gold price forecast may dampen investment sentiment in the precious metals market in the short term, acting as downward pressure on prices. However, since there is a concurrent analysis that forced liquidation is nearing exhaustion, the mid- to long-term downside is likely to be limited.
In the bullish scenario, rapid price stabilization is expected due to the influx of physical buying and the completion of speculative position liquidation. In the bearish scenario, an extension of the downward trend could occur due to additional forced selling and a global strong-dollar trend. Key monitoring indicators are whether the futures curve flattens and the timing of central banks resuming purchases.
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