US September Jobs Report Preview: 98k Payrolls Expected
Newsquawk ·
The United States economy is projected to report 98k nonfarm payroll additions for September in the upcoming data release on October 2, 2026. Market experts point out that the previous August figure of 162k might have benefited from favorable seasonal adjustments, raising scrutiny over potential downward revisions. The unemployment rate is forecasted to remain steady at 4.1%, underpinned by the Chicago Fed's real-time projections. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are anticipated to climb 0.3% month-over-month, repeating the pace seen in August. Other employment proxies showed encouraging signs during September, including lower jobless claims, stronger-than-expected ADP private payrolls, reduced layoffs reported by Challenger, and accelerated hiring trends across both manufacturing and service sectors according to S&P Global surveys.
AI 시장 분석
The U.S. economy expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by 98,000 in September, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, showing a coexistence of a moderate slowdown and stability in the labor market. These employment indicators directly impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction and could increase market volatility. Investors should monitor changes in rate cut expectations following the data release and focus on risk management.
상승 영향
- Growth Stocks — Stable labor market trends and soft landing expectations remain, acting positively on tech-focused growth stock sentiment.
- Real Estate — Unemployment remains stable at 4.1% and the risk of sudden rate spikes eases, reducing uncertainty in the real estate market.
하락 영향
- Bonds — If employment indicators exceed expectations, aggressive rate cut expectations retreat, putting downward pressure on bond prices.
DYAX 전담 분석
With September nonfarm payroll growth expected at 98,000, strong ADP private employment and a decrease in jobless claims suggest the labor market's fundamentals remain solid. As a result, expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts may be partially adjusted, leading to short-term volatility expansion in the bond and stock markets.
The bullish scenario is that the employment slowdown leads to a soft landing, driving Fed rate cuts and stock market gains, while the bearish scenario is heightened recession fears due to an employment indicator shock. Key indicators to watch are the actual nonfarm payroll change and the month-over-month change in average hourly earnings growth.
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