Crude Oil Prices Mixed as France Proposes Strategic Reserve Release and US Jobs Report Disappoints

Newsquawk · 2026-10-02

Crude benchmarks finished the final trading session of the week on divergent paths, with Brent closing in positive territory while WTI settled lower. Markets initially faced downward momentum following reports that France suggested releasing a combined 100 million barrels of crude and diesel alongside International Energy Agency members, provided the United States abstains from a unilateral diesel export restriction. Additional selling pressure materialized after a significantly weaker-than-expected US employment report. Both WTI and Brent sank to session lows of USD 88.06 per barrel and USD 95.12 per barrel, respectively, after French President Emmanuel Macron verified a four-month release timeline and G7 leaders endorsed the 100 million barrel initiative. Despite touching these session troughs, prices subsequently rebounded without a definitive news catalyst ahead of the weekend. In addition, the Baker Hughes rig count showed active oil rigs increased by one to reach 456, while natural gas rigs declined by two to 133, bringing the total count down by one to 598.

AI 시장 분석

WTI and Brent crude experienced volatility, dropping to intraday lows of $88.06 and $95.12, respectively, following the announcement of a total 100 million barrel strategic reserve release by the EU and IEA member countries, compounded by sluggish U.S. employment data. Afterwards, prices recovered some losses ahead of the market close without distinct catalysts, ending mixed. Investors should take a cautious approach over the weekend while monitoring geopolitical risks and additional supply news.

상승 영향

Energy — As low-buying inflows emerged following the intraday sharp drop caused by reserve release news, oil prices recovered losses, expanding volatility trading opportunities for related companies.

하락 영향

Airlines — Despite the 100 million barrel oil and diesel reserve release and sluggish employment data, ongoing oil price volatility increased fuel cost uncertainty.
Chemicals — Uncertainty regarding overall costs and demand intensified due to weak U.S. employment data and supply expansion measures in the oil market.

DYAX 전담 분석

France's proposal to release diesel and crude reserves, along with the G7's confirmation of a 100 million barrel release, temporarily eased oil supply concerns and acted as downward pressure on prices. In addition, U.S. employment figures fell short of expectations, heightening economic slowdown fears and adding downward pressure on risk assets broadly, including energy.

As for future scenarios, further oil price declines are expected if the reserve release is realized and demand slows, but the potential for a sharp rebound remains if unexpected geopolitical variables emerge. Key observation points are the actual release pace of IEA member countries and additional global oil supply-demand news announced over the weekend.

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