US Treasury Market Experiences Bear Flattening Amid Rising Crude Prices
Newsquawk ·
United States Treasury yields experienced a bear flattening on Friday as crude prices advanced due to mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Market participants are now shifting their focus toward upcoming consumer price index figures and Federal Reserve Chair Warsh slated for next week. At the close, the 2-year yield climbed 2.9 basis points to 4.791%, the 3-year added 3.1 basis points to 4.923%, the 5-year increased 2.9 basis points to 5.021%, the 7-year rose 1.9 basis points to 5.132%, and the 10-year ticked up 0.7 basis points to 5.242%. Conversely, the 20-year yield fell 0.3 basis points to 5.652%, while the 30-year dropped 0.6 basis points to 5.601%. The session lacked major macroeconomic releases or central bank remarks, but climbing oil prices weighed heavily on shorter-term maturities against a backdrop of revived inflation worries. These crude gains followed aggressive rhetoric and actions from the IRGC, which expanded operations beyond the Strait of Hormuz, alongside reports that Houthis had deployed mines.
AI 시장 분석
Rising oil prices due to heightened Middle East tensions stoked inflation fears, causing a bear flattening in US Treasury yields. The 2-year yield rose 2.9bps to 4.791% and the 10-year rose 0.7bps to 5.242%, with selling pressure concentrated on short-term maturities. Market attention is now turning to next week's CPI release and Fed officials' speeches.
상승 영향
- Crude Oil — Rising Middle East tensions, expanded attacks by the IRGC, and strikes outside the Strait of Hormuz have heightened supply disruption concerns, increasing the likelihood of sustained crude oil price gains.
하락 영향
- Bonds — Inflationary concerns driven by rising oil prices led to selling concentrated in short-term US Treasuries, causing a bear flattening where yields rose and bond prices fell.
- Growth Stocks — Rising Treasury yields and intensifying inflation pressures increase the discount rate, acting as downward pressure on tech and growth stock valuations.
DYAX 전담 분석
The rise in crude oil prices driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased short-term inflationary pressures, directly triggering a rise in short-term US Treasury yields (price declines). In particular, the spread of conflict beyond the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over supply disruptions, dampening sentiment in the bond market.
Looking at future scenarios, if next week's CPI figures exceed expectations, further yield increases and weakness in growth stocks are anticipated; conversely, an alleviation rally in the bond market is expected. Investors should closely monitor crude oil price volatility and the Fed's policy stance.
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