Canada Trade Negotiator Charette Warns Against Hopes for Tariff-Free US Trade

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Canada's US trade negotiator Charette stated that expectations of returning to a tariff-free trading relationship with the US should be abandoned. When a lead official actively lowers the baseline, it typically mirrors the difficult reality of ongoing talks. Historically, once tariffs are implemented, relief generally arrives via exemptions or quotas rather than full removal, making a complete reversion to prior free-trade terms quite rare. Meanwhile, broader markets faced persistent risk-off sentiment driven by artificial intelligence concerns and geopolitical tensions, pushing equities lower while safe-haven assets attracted attention.

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Canada's US trade negotiator Charette lowered expectations of returning to a tariff-free trade regime with the US, signaling that tariffs will become the new baseline for negotiations. Meanwhile, a risk-off sentiment led by tech stocks persists, highlighted by Tesla's spending cuts and a 3.0% plunge in the Nasdaq. Investors need to prudently adjust their portfolios while monitoring geopolitical risks and shifts in US monetary policy.

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The possibility of abolishing Canada's tariff-free trade and the US stance of maintaining tariffs on China and other nations increase trade friction costs for export-driven countries and pressure corporate margins. In particular, AI concerns and the decline in tech stocks triggered by Tesla's investment cuts are exerting downward pressure on overall market valuations.

The bullish scenario involves the introduction of item-specific exceptions or quotas during negotiations to mitigate the tariff shock, while the bearish scenario entails an escalation of full-scale trade conflicts worsening the earnings of export-led companies. Key indicators to watch are follow-up remarks by senior Canadian cabinet ministers and US trade negotiation guidelines.

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