US September Durable Goods Orders Rise 2.2% ex-Defense as Major Firms Post Q3 Earnings

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US durable goods orders excluding defense rose 2.2% month-over-month in September, accelerating from the prior 0.3% print. Orders excluding transportation grew 0.5%, while headline durable goods orders increased 1.8%. Concurrently, corporate earnings rolled out for Q3 2026. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) posted an adjusted EPS of 0.88 USD on revenue of 7.546 billion USD. Coca-Cola (KO) reported an adjusted EPS of 0.88 USD, while its actual revenue hit 13.4 billion USD with an adjusted EPS of 0.91 USD. United Parcel Service (UPS) delivered an EPS of 1.69 USD on revenue of 22.9 billion USD, raising its full-year guidance. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) and PACCAR (PCAR) also beat consensus estimates in their quarterly reports, highlighting robust private sector activity alongside positive manufacturing data.

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U.S. September durable goods orders, excluding defense, increased by 2.2% month-over-month, signaling a recovery in private capital goods demand. Major corporations such as Coca-Cola, UPS, and Freeport-McMoRan reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, proving robust fundamentals. These macroeconomic indicators and strong corporate earnings serve as factors supporting overall risk-on sentiment.

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The September durable goods orders indicator rebounded significantly from 0.3% in the previous month to 2.2%, showing that corporate facility investment momentum is being maintained. The simultaneously announced strong earnings of major companies alleviate concerns about a real economy downturn and form a causal link that strengthens the downside rigidity of the stock market.

The bullish scenario is that continuous expansion of facility investment and corporate earnings growth will drive a broad stock market rally, while the bearish scenario is that uncertainty regarding the interest rate path due to inflationary pressures will re-emerge. Future revised figures and changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance should be closely monitored.

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