US September Goods Trade Deficit Widens as Amphenol and Etsy Post Strong Q3 Results
Newsquawk ·
The advanced US goods trade balance for September showed a deficit of USD 134.90 billion, wider than the forecasted USD 130 billion shortfall and exceeding the previous month's revised deficit of USD 132.07 billion. This wider gap suggests net trade may act as a drag on quarterly GDP. In corporate earnings, Amphenol reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS of USD 0.80 on sales of USD 10.2 billion, both beating expectations. Etsy also posted upbeat Q3 2026 results with an EPS of USD 1.00 and revenue of USD 692 million, topping analyst estimates. Additionally, ADP announced Q3 adjusted EPS of USD 2.82 and revenue of USD 5.5 billion, while reaffirming its annual growth outlook, and Garmin matched revenue forecasts with USD 1.99 billion alongside an adjusted EPS of USD 2.76.
AI 시장 분석
The U.S. merchandise trade deficit for September widened to $134.9 billion, exceeding the expected $130 billion, which is projected to exert downward pressure on quarterly GDP growth. While this figure alone does not deliver a major shock to the market, it is incorporated into economic growth estimates in combination with inventory data. Investors should closely monitor domestic demand health driven by rising imports and the contribution of net exports to GDP.
상승 영향
- Consumer Goods — The growth trend in U.S. retail and wholesale inventories reflects solid domestic consumer demand, which is positive for the earnings of related companies.
하락 영향
- Stock Market — The wider-than-expected September merchandise trade deficit acts as downward pressure on quarterly GDP growth, burdening the indexes.
DYAX 전담 분석
The expansion of the U.S. merchandise trade deficit in September suggests increased imports and sluggish net exports, which could act as a negative factor in future quarterly GDP calculations. However, the concurrent rise in inventory indicators demonstrates solid domestic demand, showing mixed sector trends rather than overall recessionary concerns.
The bullish scenario involves robust domestic demand and inventory accumulation defending overall economic growth, while the bearish scenario entails a widening trade deficit eroding real GDP growth rates. Key indicators to watch are subsequent service trade statistics and the trajectory of the U.S. dollar around the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
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