US September Retail Inventories Rise 0.4% Alongside Major Corporate Q3 Earnings
Newsquawk ·
Advance US retail inventories excluding autos rose 0.4% in September following a flat prior month of 0%, feeding into quarterly GDP calculations. In corporate earnings, Amphenol reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 0.80 USD on 10.2 billion USD in sales, beating estimates. Etsy posted Q3 EPS of 1.00 USD and revenue of 692 million USD, also surpassing expectations. Meanwhile, GE Vernova announced plans to acquire Trench Group for 9 billion USD, targeting 50 million to 100 million USD in annual cost synergies by 2030, and posted Q3 revenue of 12.6 billion USD with adjusted EBITDA of 1.9 billion USD. Garmin reported Q3 revenue of 1.99 billion USD with adjusted EPS of 2.76 USD.
AI 시장 분석
U.S. September retail inventories (excluding autos) rose from 0.0% to 0.4% in the previous month, and wholesale inventories also beat expectations at 0.6%. During the same period, the merchandise trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion, while MBA mortgage rates ticked down to 7.37%. For Q3 corporate earnings, companies like Amphenol, Etsy, Garmin, and GE Vernova posted strong results that beat expectations.
상승 영향
- AI — Amphenol reported strong Q3 results with adjusted EPS of $0.80 and revenue of $10.2 billion, beating expectations and proving strong demand related to semiconductors and AI infrastructure.
- Real Estate — The U.S. MBA 30-year mortgage rate fell to 7.37% from 7.41% the previous week, and mortgage applications increased by 3.4%, raising expectations for a housing market recovery.
하락 영향
- Consumer Goods — As the U.S. September merchandise trade deficit widened to $134.9 billion and retail and wholesale inventories increased, inventory adjustment burdens could grow if demand slows in the future.
DYAX 전담 분석
The increase in inventory indicators is a factor reflected in future GDP growth calculations. Its market impact varies depending on whether it is intentional inventory accumulation due to strong demand or involuntary accumulation due to sluggishness. However, simultaneously released solid corporate earnings and a rebound in mortgage applications provide downside rigidity to consumption and economic fundamentals, lending support to risk assets.
As a future scenario, if inventory growth is interpreted as proactive stockpiling based on robust sales, expectations for a soft landing could spread and act positively on the stock market. On the other hand, if inventories prove to be toxic due to slowing demand, it could act as destocking pressure going forward, increasing downward pressure on related consumer goods and manufacturing stock prices.
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