Swedish Business Confidence Rises to 110.7 in October Alongside Mixed Q3 GDP and Retail Data

Newsquawk · 2026-10-29

Sweden's business confidence for October advanced to 110.7 from a previous 109.3, marking a second consecutive month of gains. Concurrently, the flash third-quarter year-on-year GDP growth rate came in at 2.8%, trailing the expected 2.9% and cooling from 3.3%, while quarterly GDP expanded by 0.4%. Monthly GDP for September contracted by 0.7%, reversing from the prior 1.2%. Consumer confidence dropped to 94.3 in October from 102.3, whereas consumer inflation expectations for the month climbed to 7.7% from 6.3%. Retail sales for September showed a monthly decline of 0.4% and a 5.5% annual increase. In other international metrics, New Zealand's ANZ business confidence printed at 52.5 for October, South Korea stood at 78, and Finland registered 2.

AI 시장 분석

Sweden's October business confidence index rose to 110.7 from 109.3 in the previous month, showing improvement for the second consecutive month. However, Sweden's September retail sales slowed to -0.4% month-over-month, and the US dollar weakened due to the dovish stance of the FOMC. Investors should closely monitor real economic indicators and the central bank's monetary policy responses.

상승 영향

Growth Stocks — The absence of a hawkish surprise in the Fed's rate decision and the weakening of the US dollar acted as a positive factor for the US stock market, centered on tech stocks.

하락 영향

USD — The US Dollar Index faced downward pressure as the FOMC meeting lacked a hawkish stance and Fed officials' remarks met market expectations.
Consumer Goods — Sweden's September retail sales decreased by -0.4% month-over-month, stimulating concerns over a slowdown in consumer spending and weighing on the earnings of related consumer goods.

DYAX 전담 분석

Despite the rise in Sweden's business sentiment index, the decline in retail sales and the slowdown in real GDP momentum are having mixed effects on the SEK and related currencies. The absence of a hawkish surprise from the Fed, leading to a weaker dollar, provides short-term support for global risk assets.

Exchange rate volatility may increase depending on future inflation pressure and the central bank's interest rate path, and whether PMI and real indicators expand will be key watchpoints.

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