ECB Holds Rates at 2.65% as Lagarde Confirms Hike Was Debated
Newsquawk ·
The European Central Bank maintained its interest rate at 2.65 percent on October 29, 2026, alongside a deposit facility rate of 2.50 percent and a marginal lending rate of 2.9 percent, matching forecasts. During the Q&A session, ECB President Christine Lagarde disclosed that policymakers actively deliberated a rate hike before opting to hold due to heightened uncertainty and stable underlying inflation. However, her remarks pointing to rising energy costs and potential second-round effects sustained a hawkish tone across European markets. Additionally, the ECB officially confirmed that Lagarde will step down early on February 7, 2027. Fixed income assets climbed following US PCE data and safe-haven demand amid equity weakness, while market participants closely monitor upcoming inflation figures and staff projections for further monetary policy direction.
AI 시장 분석
The ECB froze interest rates at 2.65%, but the disclosure of internal discussions regarding a rate hike strengthened hawkish expectations. President Lagarde warned of upward inflation pressures and rising energy price risks while maintaining a data-dependent stance. While the bond market showed strength, the stock market faced downward pressure, and investors are focusing on upcoming inflation data.
상승 영향
- Bonds — Eurozone government bonds (EGBs) and bond prices rose due to the ECB's rate freeze and the spread of safe-haven sentiment.
- Banking — An environment favorable for defending net interest margins was created as rate cut expectations retreated and deposit rates and lending margins remained at high levels.
하락 영향
- Stock Market — Downward pressure on the stock market intensified due to the ECB's hawkish remarks, inflation concerns, and declines in tech stocks (NQ -1.8%, GOOG -13%).
DYAX 전담 분석
Despite the ECB's rate freeze, the revelation of internal hike discussions and warnings over rising energy prices sent hawkish signals to the market, acting as upward pressure on short-term deposit rates and bond yields. Particularly since inflation stabilization is not yet assured and the possibility of further hikes remains open, asset price volatility is expected to expand depending on upcoming inflation data and policymakers' remarks.
A bullish scenario involves clear deflationary trends solidifying a rate freeze stance, while a bearish scenario entails a secondary inflation shock driven by energy prices leading to actual additional hikes, causing both stock and bond markets to decline. Key indicators to watch are the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and short-term deposit rate trends.
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