ECB's Makhlouf Expresses Discomfort with Current Rates While Noting Persistent Upside Risks
Newsquawk ·
European Central Bank Governing Council member Makhlouf stated he feels uncomfortable with the current policy rate stance and acknowledged that upside risks to inflation remain present. However, he noted that indirect price transmission is not intensifying and no second-round effects have been observed so far. This commentary aligns with a hawkish yet cautious stance, pointing toward a bias of holding or tightening rather than signaling imminent policy shifts. Meanwhile, macroeconomic data showed that the eurozone preliminary Q3 GDP grew by 1.3% year-on-year and 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, both beating market expectations. Fixed income markets experienced a firmer week, supported by central bank inaction and ongoing technology sector sell-offs, while the broader currency market saw a softer US dollar alongside a fresh 2026 low in EUR/GBP.
AI 시장 분석
ECB Governing Council member Makhlouf expressed discomfort with current interest rate levels and warned of upside inflation risks, though no secondary spillover effects were observed. The market interpreted this as a call for patience rather than an immediate rate hike signal, having a limited impact on the bond and foreign exchange markets. Investors must reassess the monetary policy path while closely monitoring future wage growth and service price indicators.
상승 영향
- Banks — Hawkish remarks by ECB officials and mentions of potential rate hikes help defend net interest margins (NIM), positively impacting bank profitability.
- USD — Despite Eurozone upside inflation risks and hawkish rhetoric, ongoing uncertainty within Europe enhances the relative appeal of the US dollar.
하락 영향
- Bonds — Successive hints of rate hikes by high-ranking ECB officials and upward revisions to inflation expectations increase selling pressure in the bond market.
- Real Estate — Concerns over prolonged high interest rates and a tight monetary policy stance could delay the recovery of the real estate market due to rising financing costs.
DYAX 전담 분석
Hawkish remarks by ECB officials and persistent upside inflation risks are increasing bond yield volatility and directly impacting the direction of the euro. In particular, the market is monitoring potential policy stance shifts through Overnight Index Swaps (OIS).
As future scenarios, if the possibility of additional rate hikes is highlighted, a drop in bond prices and strength in bank stocks are expected. Conversely, if a freeze stance is maintained, a favorable environment will be created for growth stocks and the real estate market. Key indicators to watch are the 2026-2027 inflation expectations and negotiated wage growth rates.
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