A Google employee allegedly used inside information to win $1.2 million on Polymarket

THE VERGE · 2026-05-27

Federal prosecutors charged a Google employee with fraud after he allegedly made $1.2 million on Polymarket bets related to Search-related trends in 2025, as reported earlier by ABC News. In their now-unsealed complaint, prosecutors allege that Michele Spagnuolo “knew the outcome of these wagers before the trading public did because he had accessed Google’s confidential, commercially valuable internal data.” Spagnuolo was arrested in New York on Wednesday but released on a $2.25 million bond, ABC News reports. He is charged with commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering. Spagnuolo made bets on Polymarket under the username AlphaRacoon, with his successful search-related wagers catching the attention of outlets like Forbes and users on social media last December. In one instance, Spagnuolo correctly guessed that a singer named D4vd would “be the #1 searched person on Google” in 2025, despite the “near-zero probability” assigned by Polymarket, according to the complaint. At the same time, Spagnuolo allegedly bet that Pope Leo XIV and Kendrick Lamar would not appear on Google’s “Year in Search 2025” lists, which are difficult to predict because of how they’re calculated. Google says it ranked last year’s terms based on which ones saw the “highest increase in traffic” — not the highest number of searches — between January 1st, 2025 and November 25th, 2025. “By measuring the spike in interest rather than the total number of searches, we can identify the trends that were unique to 2025.” “Once he won, Spagnuolo then took deliberate steps to conceal his unlawful use of nonpublic information by attempting to obscure the source and ownership of his unlawful proceeds,” the complaint says. Last month, federal prosecutors charged US Army soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke with fraud for allegedly making a $400,000 Polymarket bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Several states have taken steps to regulate prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi due to concerns about insider trading, but the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and President Donald Trump have pushed back on these decisions. The CFTC claims it has the “exclusive” authority over prediction markets. In a statement on X, Polymarket called itself “the enforcement leader,” saying its “market integrity infrastructure” flagged Spagnuolo’s activity. “Blockchain trading is transparent, traceable, and bad actors leave footprints,” the company writes, without noting whether the people putting their money down know that. ”We’re working with law enforcement on their investigation,” Google spokesperson Jaclyn Vazquez says in a statement to The Verge. “The employee accessed our marketing material using a tool available to all employees, but using such confidential information to place bets is a serious breach of our policies. We’ve placed the employee on leave and will take the appropriate action.”

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A Google employee is allegedly accused of using inside information to win $1.2 million on the prediction market platform Polymarket. This incident raises serious concerns about insider trading and the integrity of such platforms.

하락 영향

Prediction Markets — Allegations of insider trading fundamentally undermine trust in the fairness and transparency of prediction markets, potentially leading to user exodus and increased regulatory scrutiny.
Decentralized Finance (DeFi) — As prediction markets are part of the DeFi ecosystem, this incident exposes vulnerabilities in DeFi platforms, potentially leading to increased overall regulatory pressure and decreased investor confidence.
Cryptocurrency — Allegations of insider trading on a blockchain-based platform can intensify regulatory oversight across the broader cryptocurrency market and dampen investor sentiment.

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