Exxon Faces Pressure Near Record Highs as Trump Treasury Says Gulf Oil Is Roaring Back
Yahoo Finance ·
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed pre-conflict levels, causing Brent crude to drop 1% on Monday to roughly $115 a barrel. ExxonMobil heads into its October 30 earnings report near record highs, having gained 12% through October 22. Wall Street analysts project 2026 earnings per share at $13.29, nearly doubling the $6.99 expected for 2025, driven largely by war-related refining margins and crude prices. However, 2028 estimates have been trimmed to $10.62. Exxon notes that every $1 per barrel shift in Brent impacts annual earnings by about $700 million. With shipping through the Persian Gulf returning, the elevated refining margins that bolstered recent quarters are expected to face mounting pressure, making the upcoming December plan update critical for investors.
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The U.S. Treasury stated that Persian Gulf crude oil exports have exceeded pre-conflict levels, causing Brent crude to fall 1% to $115 a barrel. As expectations of easing tensions with Iran resolve crude supply shortages, the war-related special premiums of refining stocks like ExxonMobil are showing signs of weakening. Investors are advised to take a cautious approach keeping in mind the possibility of downward revisions to future earnings estimates.
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- Crude Oil — Because Persian Gulf crude exports have recovered to pre-conflict levels and supply disruption concerns have eased, causing Brent crude prices to fall by 1%.
- Energy — Because major energy companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron will face pressure on the war premiums and high refining margins they have enjoyed due to supply normalization.
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Following the Treasury's announcement, as Gulf region crude exports resume and refining margin pressures intensify, the downward price pressure on energy companies that surged due to war tailwinds is growing. Brent crude price fluctuations are directly linked to ExxonMobil's annual net income, and a decline in future earnings outlooks for 2028 is a factor that increases valuation burdens.
The bullish scenario is that tight global demand persists and high oil prices are maintained, while the bearish scenario is that margins plummet due to supply normalization. Investors should use the corporate plan updates scheduled for December and trends in refining margins as key monitoring indicators.
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