Morgan Stanley Projects $14B Revenue Contribution from Apple Foldable iPhone
Yahoo Finance ·
Morgan Stanley anticipates that Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone could generate approximately $14 billion in revenue during the December quarter, highlighting the impending September 9 launch as the most pivotal form-factor transformation since the iPhone X. Analyst Erik Woodring noted that initial demand is projected to be robust against supply constraints, with production estimates reaching 7 million to 8 million units in the second half of 2026 and scaling up to 20 million throughout the initial product cycle. The financial institution views this release as a vital benchmark for pricing power, driven by escalating NAND and DRAM expenses that are anticipated to push Pro model prices up by more than $200 year over year. Furthermore, the iPhone 18 Pro is expected to integrate TSMC's 2nm fabrication node to bolster on-device artificial intelligence capabilities. Notably, this event will mark a historic leadership transition, as newly appointed CEO John Ternus takes the helm instead of Tim Cook, steering the company through its most substantial design overhaul in nearly a decade alongside the introduction of the highly anticipated foldable device.
AI 시장 분석
Morgan Stanley forecasts that Apple's first foldable iPhone will generate approximately $14 billion in revenue in the December quarter, evaluating this launch as the most significant change since the iPhone X. Production of 7 million to 8 million units is expected in the second half of 2026, and Pro model prices are likely to rise by over $200 due to increasing memory costs. Investors should monitor the impact of TSMC's 2nm process adoption and pricing power on Apple's earnings.
상승 영향
- AI — On-device AI performance enhancement leveraging TSMC's 2nm process is expected, driving demand for premium devices.
- Semiconductors — Apple's massive production plans, alongside increasing demand for core components like NAND and DRAM, provide direct benefits to the earnings of related semiconductor companies.
DYAX 전담 분석
Apple's new product launch and the adoption of TSMC's 2nm process directly lead to increased revenues for supply chain companies, with the $14 billion in new revenue acting as a strong positive catalyst for related semiconductor and component partners. However, cost pressures and memory supply constraints driven by rising NAND and DRAM prices serve as risk factors that could brake production scaling.
In the bullish scenario, record-breaking earnings could be achieved through explosive initial demand and successful price hikes, leading to a simultaneous surge in related component stocks. Conversely, in the bearish scenario, there is a risk that sales may fall short of expectations due to supply chain bottlenecks and high price resistance, requiring close monitoring of future shipment data and memory price trends.
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