Survey shows Apple is seeing a better-than-expected iPhone refresh cycle
Yahoo Finance ·
Evercore ISI revealed in a note to clients that its recent consumer survey indicates a stronger-than-anticipated iPhone upgrade cycle for Apple, bolstered by favorable pricing dynamics. Based on an annual poll of nearly 4,000 shoppers, demand is primarily propelled by the newest device lineups. The Pro Max model retained its dominant position, with 53% of participants intending to purchase either the iPhone 18 Pro or Pro Max, while those eyeing the Pro Max alone climbed to 32% compared to 29% previously. Interest in the foldable iPhone Duo registered at 14% ahead of its October rollout. Furthermore, upgrades prompted by aging handsets surged to 67% from last year's 48%. Driven by a preference for larger memory configurations and the introduction of 2-terabyte variants, average selling prices are projected to climb roughly 28%. Wearable interest also increased, with Apple Watch and AirPods purchase intentions reaching 38% and 43%, respectively. Consequently, Evercore reiterated its outperform rating on AAPL and elevated its price target to $380.
AI 시장 분석
According to Evercore ISI's recent consumer survey, Apple's iPhone replacement cycle is showing stronger-than-expected momentum. In particular, average selling prices (ASPs) are projected to rise significantly due to increased preference for Pro Max models and higher memory specifications. This demand recovery will act as a positive factor for Apple's fiscal 2027 revenue growth.
상승 영향
- Apple — Revenue growth is expected as ASPs are projected to rise by 28% due to an improving iPhone replacement cycle and expanding preference for Pro Max models.
DYAX 전담 분석
The survey indicates that 53% of respondents plan to purchase the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, confirming the potential for ASPs to increase by up to 28% driven by higher prices and a preference for high-capacity memory. This will directly benefit Apple's revenue and net income growth, strengthening upward pressure on the stock price.
The bull case is that actual sales exceed expectations upon the new product launch, significantly beating earnings consensus, while the bear case is that demand could plummet during a global macroeconomic downturn due to the survey being limited to the U.S. region. Investors should closely monitor future wearable device sales and ASP trends.
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