Forget the Selloff: $2 Trillion is the Only Number That Matters for NVIDIA
Yahoo Finance ·
Chip equities declined on Thursday despite Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reporting a 51% surge in third-quarter sales, driven by anxiety that debt-funded AI investments are nearing their peak. Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis stated that US capital expenditures will reach approximately $2 trillion next year, pointing to continued expansion for NVIDIA. Analysts project NVIDIA revenue will climb to $692 billion for the year ending January 2028, up from $412 billion expected for the current fiscal period. Trading at 19.6 times forward earnings, NVIDIA is currently valued at roughly half its five-year historical average. While macroeconomic pressures such as a 4% jump in Brent crude to $104 and a 10-year Treasury yield rise to 5.33% weighed on sentiment, experts maintain that the monumental spending figures validate the ongoing artificial intelligence boom.
AI 시장 분석
Despite TSMC recording a 51% increase in Q3 revenue, semiconductor stocks fell due to rising oil prices and a sharp surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.33%. Meanwhile, SemiAnalysis projected that US capital expenditures (CapEx) will reach $2兆 next year, analyzing that the AI investment boom will continue. NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio stands at 19.6x, only half of its 5-year average, leading to assessments that the market has already overly priced in a peak.
상승 영향
- AI — US capital expenditures are expected to reach $2 trillion next year, and NVIDIA's revenue is projected to surge to $692 billion by 2028.
- Semiconductors — TSMC's Q3 revenue surged 51%, clearly confirming earnings growth across the AI semiconductor supply chain.
- Crude Oil — Brent crude rose 4% to reach $104, creating a favorable environment for related energy assets in the short term.
하락 영향
- Bonds — The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.33%, negatively impacting bond investment sentiment and placing a burden on risky assets overall.
DYAX 전담 분석
Amid rising oil prices and high-interest rate pressures, the market triggered a semiconductor correction, worrying that debt-based AI spending has peaked. However, supply chain data and the $2 trillion US investment outlook prove that AI infrastructure demand remains robust and support NVIDIA's earnings growth.
Going forward, investors should monitor whether the $2 trillion is actually executed and hyperscalers' quarterly CapEx indicators. If spending persists, NVIDIA's 2028 revenue projection of $692 billion and its undervalued valuation appeal may come to the spotlight.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
DYAX Investor Sentiment
Bullish (Long) 52% · Bearish (Short) 48%
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