SpaceX Eyes Q3 Earnings Amid RBC Bullishness, S&P AI Debt Warnings and Google Cloud Ties

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Shares of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. dipped 0.4% overnight ahead of its third-quarter earnings release, where Koyfin estimates project $13 billion in revenue and an adjusted EPS of $0.13. RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating with a $225 price target, signaling over 50% upside potential while noting mounting investor interest in a prospective merger with Tesla alongside ongoing Starship momentum. Simultaneously, S&P Global cautioned during a London event about hidden liabilities linked to interconnected AI data center financing, estimating that major tech giants and SpaceX will pour over $7 trillion into capital expenditures through 2030. Additionally, Google confirmed that its short-term computing agreement with SpaceX helps bridge capacity gaps for surging Gemini Enterprise demand while its own facilities are developed.

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Ahead of SpaceX's Q3 earnings release with expected revenue of $13 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.13, RBC Capital projected over 50% upside based on Starship momentum and potential Tesla merger. However, S&P Global warned that SpaceX, alongside Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle, faces hidden debt and financing risks as they spend over $7 trillion on data centers and AI infrastructure from 2025 to 2030. Investors are taking a conservative approach, simultaneously monitoring SpaceX's solid earnings growth and the financial burdens from AI infrastructure investments.

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SpaceX is projected to record $13 billion in Q3 revenue and $6.62 billion in EBITDA, expanding its Starlink Mobility business through a $92 million computing contract with Google and spectrum acquisitions. While RBC viewed this positively, S&P pointed out complex financing structures and hidden debt risks in the AI infrastructure buildout, suggesting that free cash flow deficits could persist into next year.

The bullish scenario involves upward valuation revisions for SpaceX driven by Starship launch success, Tesla merger expectations, and expanding AI computing demand, whereas the bearish scenario centers on deteriorating financial health due to highlighted AI debt risks and capital expenditure burdens. Key monitoring metrics are SpaceX's earnings release details and the transparency of data center financing among AI-related companies.

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