Sequoia Partner Projects SpaceX Revenue to Hit $731B by 2028, Citing Nvidia-Like Growth
Yahoo Finance ·
Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire projects that SpaceX (SPCX) could achieve a massive revenue surge comparable to Nvidia (NVDA), reaching $731.1 billion by 2028. Maguire's model outlines $569 billion in ground-based AI-computing revenue, $64.7 billion from Starlink including Starshield, and $23.9 billion from Direct to Cell for 2028, alongside $369 billion in capital spending. Total revenue is modeled at $51.5 billion for 2026 and $273.8 billion for 2027, with computing capacity expected to hit 10.2 gigawatts by the end of 2027 and 21 gigawatts by the end of 2028. While Maguire acknowledges his firm's financial interest in SpaceX, he believes investors underestimate the company's potential. Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) investor Alexandra Merz evaluated potential merger math exchange ratios. Separately, New Street Research highlighted thousands of Starlink-connected AI sites, though it cautioned that deploying 10 gigawatts by 2027 might prove overly aggressive.
AI 시장 분석
Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire projects SpaceX's revenue will reach $731.1 billion by 2028, drawing parallels to Nvidia's rapid growth. This model assumes $569 billion in ground-based AI computing revenue and massive capital expenditures, alongside the expansion of Starlink and Direct to Cell. However, some experts, including New Street Research, remain cautious, arguing that the pace of building 10 gigawatts of AI infrastructure by 2027 is overly aggressive.
상승 영향
- AI — SpaceX is projected to record $569 billion in ground-based AI computing revenue by 2028, leading to an expected surge in related hardware demand.
하락 영향
- Electric Vehicles — While possibilities of a virtual merger scenario with Tesla and battery supply linkages have been raised, financial uncertainties stemming from SpaceX's massive capital expenditures ($369 billion by 2028) act as a burden.
DYAX 전담 분석
This outlook reflects expectations that SpaceX will achieve explosive growth over the next few years driven by Starship and low-cost AI infrastructure. Key assumptions include massive capital expenditures of $369 billion and achieving 21 gigawatts of computing capacity by 2028.
In a bullish scenario, aligned with declining unit costs for AI computing, SpaceX could prove its earnings power rivaling Nvidia, acting as a positive catalyst for the broader AI and infrastructure ecosystem. In a bearish scenario, the burden of excessive capital expenditures and delays in infrastructure deployment could emerge as risk factors, with key monitoring metrics being yearly AI computing capacity achievement rates and Starlink revenue growth.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
DYAX Investor Sentiment
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