Jefferies Upgrades Rivian to Buy, Sees 45% Upside Driven by R2 SUV Potential

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Investment firm Jefferies has upgraded Rivian Automotive from Hold to Buy while keeping its price target unchanged at $17, pointing to roughly 45% potential upside from current market levels. The positive outlook follows Rivian's third-quarter report, which featured a 38% revenue increase and an adjusted loss of $0.48 per share. Additionally, the electric vehicle maker revised its fiscal year 2026 delivery forecast upward to a range of 67,000 to 70,000 units, compared with its prior guidance of 65,000 to 70,000 vehicles. Analysts highlighted that the R2 electric SUV occupies a relatively unique product void between Tesla and Ford offerings. CEO RJ Scaringe noted that the R2 has quickly become the company's best-selling model since deliveries commenced in June. With recent stock pullbacks creating an attractive entry point, market sentiment has turned increasingly bullish as production scales up at the Illinois facility.

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Rivian posted strong Q3 results with revenue surging 38% to $2.16 billion and EPS loss narrowing to $0.48. Jefferies upgraded Rivian to Buy with a price target of $17, implying a 45% upside. Consequently, the stock jumped 5.6%, breaking out of its recent downward trend.

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Jefferies' upgrade and Q3 performance improvement stem from expectations that Rivian's R2 electric SUV will successfully fill the $45,000–$55,000 price gap between Tesla and Ford. Additionally, the upward revision of 2026 delivery forecasts and the potential for autonomous driving technology licensing serve as positive signals for mid-to-long-term profitability.

The bull case is that strong R2 sales continue, accelerating production efficiency and exceeding the 2026 delivery targets. The bear case is that delays in new platform production and persistent cost pressures increase financial burdens, and investors should monitor future production growth trends and the cash burn rate.

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