Apple's Valuation Leaves Little Room for Earnings Disappointment: Oppenheimer
Yahoo Finance ·
Oppenheimer has reaffirmed its Perform rating on Apple ahead of the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release, cautioning that the equity's elevated valuation leaves minimal margin for error if results fall short. Analyst Martin Yang projects fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $112.9 billion with earnings per share of $1.96, trailing consensus figures of $113.4 billion and $1.99, respectively. Furthermore, Yang forecasts fiscal 2027 earnings per share at $8.91, approximately 7% beneath consensus expectations. The analyst points to deceleration in iPhone demand, headwinds in the Services division, and rising memory expenses as primary factors limiting upside potential. Yang emphasized that Apple's current trading multiples sit near the peak of its 15-year forward price-to-earnings band, suggesting the market already prices in robust and sustained growth that may be difficult to deliver.
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Oppenheimer expects Apple (AAPL) Q4 revenue to reach $112.9 billion and EPS at $1.96, projecting a miss against consensus estimates. Due to slowing iPhone growth and memory cost inflation, the stock is positioned at the upper end of its 15-year forward P/E, making it highly vulnerable to earnings disappointment. Investors are advised to take a cautious approach considering valuation burdens and margin pressure factors.
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- Semiconductors — DRAM and NAND memory cost inflation is occurring, which is expected to deal a 150bp blow to Apple's product gross margins.
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According to Oppenheimer's analysis, December quarter product gross margins are expected to take a 150bp hit driven by soaring DRAM and NAND memory cost inflation. Furthermore, demand for Pro model upgrades is limited, and the services segment is also facing regulatory pressure and slowing App Store growth.
If guidance falls short of expectations in upcoming earnings releases, downward pressure on the stock due to valuation multiple contraction could intensify. Conversely, if cost management or surprise growth in the services segment is confirmed, downside rigidity can be secured, requiring close monitoring of memory price trends and iPhone sales volumes.
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