Could Intel Surge 100% From Here? This Analyst Believes So

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In a client note released on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, Melius Research projected that Intel shares could roughly double from their current valuation, driven by the surging strategic importance of the chipmaker's foundry business amid the artificial intelligence boom. Analyst Ben Reitzes maintained his Buy rating on the stock with a two-year price target of $165, while noting that a milestone of $200 over a two-year horizon is entirely plausible. This projection suggests an upside potential exceeding 100% from a share price currently hovering above $97. Intel stock has already advanced approximately 160% this year, outperforming both rival AMD and the broader semiconductor industry. Reitzes also defended a recent $20 billion equity offering at $95 per share, describing it as a testament to executive confidence.

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Melius Research projects that Intel's stock could surge by over 100% within the next two years, driven by rising AI-driven demand for US semiconductor manufacturing, setting a price target of $165. The revaluation of the foundry business and strategic support from the US government and major corporations are analyzed to drive the stock upward. Investors should take a long-term perspective, considering the possibility of a foundry spin-off and its national security importance.

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Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes analyzed that Intel's stock could rise from $165 to as high as $200, propelled by the value of its foundry division. Despite the recent $20 billion share issuance, management's confidence and the highlighted importance of US semiconductor supply chain security are forming strong buying momentum.

In the bull case, enterprise value would skyrocket due to the split of the foundry business and the securing of a monopoly position in the US, but in the bear case, profitability could deteriorate due to heavy capital expenditure burdens and intensifying competition. Key metrics to watch are the diversification of foundry clients and the speed of US government policy support.

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