Paul Kedrosky Warns AI Bubble May Lurk in Private Markets as Anthropic IPO Approaches
Yahoo Finance ·
Technology investor Paul Kedrosky told Benzinga in an exclusive interview that the true artificial intelligence bubble may be hiding in private markets rather than public exchanges. With the number of publicly listed firms shrinking, massive speculative valuations have accumulated in private entities like Anthropic and OpenAI. Anthropic, which filed its S-1 registration statement on Monday, plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. The company reported $16.3 billion in first-half revenue, surging from $1.2 billion a year earlier, alongside a $693 million operating loss. Projected valuations range from $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion. Major backers including Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia have committed billions in investments and cloud computing deals, pushing total potential compute spending in the filing past $500 billion. Kedrosky estimates that upcoming market debuts could carry a combined valuation of $4 trillion to $6 trillion, rivaling the entire Nasdaq during its dot-com peak, and warns that a broader private market repricing could trigger severe financial shockwaves.
AI 시장 분석
With Anthropic's imminent Nasdaq listing, concerns have been raised over a $4 trillion to $6 trillion AI bubble in the private market. Anthropic reported $16.3 billion in revenue and an operating loss of $693 million in the first half, while seeking a valuation of up to $2 trillion. Combined with massive infrastructure investments by big tech companies such as Amazon, Alphabet, and NVDA, market-wide revaluation risks are drawing attention.
상승 영향
- Semiconductors — Massive computing power and infrastructure spending plans exceeding $50 billion by AI companies including Anthropic will directly drive earnings growth for chip suppliers like NVDA.
하락 영향
- Growth Stocks — As the massive AI bubble in the private market transfers to the public market, post-listing lock-up expirations could trigger massive sell-offs and a sharp valuation revaluation risk across technology stocks.
DYAX 전담 분석
Anthropic's S-1 filing serves as a critical test for transferring speculative AI valuations concentrated in the private market to the public market. Depending on the IPO's success, subsequent listings such as OpenAI are likely to follow in chain reaction, directly and indirectly affecting the valuations of big tech companies leading large-scale infrastructure spending.
The bullish scenario is that Anthropic makes a successful debut, proving liquidity and trust across the private market, while the bearish scenario is that a listing failure leads to a market shock comparable to the Nasdaq peak during the dot-com bubble and a comprehensive revaluation. Investors should closely monitor upcoming pricing and trading volume trends immediately after listing.
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