Cathie Wood Deems SpaceX a Deep-Value Play at IPO
Yahoo Finance ·
When Space Exploration Technologies went public in June with a $1.75 trillion market capitalization, many analysts viewed it as overvalued compared to Morningstar's $780 billion valuation. However, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood defended the valuation in a September 16 post on X, labeling the space enterprise a deep-value opportunity at its initial public offering price. Wood and analyst Sam Korus utilized Starlink revenue metrics to support their thesis. By 2025, Starlink produced roughly $19 million in yearly revenue per terabit per second of capacity. Each Starship carrying 60 V3 satellites adds about 61 Tbps, suggesting a single launch could theoretically generate $1 billion in recurring annual revenue. With CEO Elon Musk targeting 10,000 Starship flights annually by 2030, Wood calculated this could yield $10 trillion in yearly revenue. Musk responded that the target is not impossible. Nevertheless, achieving this scale remains a massive challenge, given that SpaceX has only conducted 14 Starship launches since 2023, alongside 165 fleetwide launches in 2025 and 116 flights this year as of October 8.
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ARK Invest's Cathie Wood evaluated that SpaceX remains an undervalued value stock based on Starlink's massive potential revenue, even after a public listing with a 1.75 trillion dollar market cap. She argued that a recurring revenue of 1 billion dollars per Starship launch is possible, potentially reaching 10 trillion dollars in revenue annually by 2030 with 10,000 launches per year. However, critics point out that the cumulative number of launches to date is extremely small, requiring a realistic verification of feasibility.
상승 영향
- Aerospace — Investment sentiment in the broader space industry could improve as SpaceX's IPO and Starlink's high revenue potential per bandwidth are highlighted.
하락 영향
- Growth Stocks — Excessive future revenue forecasts lacking realism could aggravate overvaluation controversies and expand volatility.
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Cathie Wood's 10 trillion dollar revenue forecast is based on Starship's aggressive launch schedule, which stimulates growth expectations in related aerospace and tech sectors. However, with the current number of Starship launches at a mere 14, setting excessive targets could increase market volatility.
Going forward, investors should closely monitor the actual annual growth rate of Starship launches and Starlink's revenue trends per bandwidth. If feasibility is proven, a valuation rerating across the space industry is possible, but if delayed, bubble controversies could re-emerge.
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