EV Market Divides as Tesla Reveals New Roadster and Automakers Report Q3 Results

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Global electric vehicle sales climbed 20% to surpass 20 million units in 2025 and are projected to hit 23 million in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency. Meanwhile, the U.S. sector has bifurcated following the expiration of federal tax credits worth up to $7,500. In corporate developments, Tesla unveiled its next-generation Roadster in Texas on October 15, targeting production in 2028. Tesla reported third-quarter production of 464,391 vehicles and deliveries of 486,532 units. Rivian achieved a record sales quarter, producing 19,751 vehicles and delivering 19,248 at its Normal, Illinois facility, while reaffirming its annual delivery outlook of 65,000 to 70,000 units. Lucid adjusted its manufacturing output, reporting 2,954 vehicles produced and 3,806 delivered in the third quarter as part of its operational turnaround strategy.

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According to the IEA, global electric vehicle sales surged 20% to surpass 20 million units in 2025 and are projected to reach 23 million units in 2026. Amid energy crises from Middle Eastern conflicts and shifting subsidy policies, major companies like Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid are showing mixed earnings and production results. Investors must closely monitor company-specific sales trends and supply chain cost pressures.

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While EV sales showed growth, surging 35% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, companies are experiencing contrasting fortunes in the wake of the repeal of US subsidies. Rivian delivered a record 19,248 vehicles in the third quarter, whereas Lucid is deepening polarization by scaling back its production lines.

The bullish scenario involves achieving economies of scale through the expansion of global EV adoption, while the bearish scenario entails deteriorating profitability driven by subsidy elimination and battery raw material cost burdens. Key monitoring indicators are each company's quarterly deliveries and the volatility of secondary battery raw material prices.

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