California's billionaire tax might now be dead on arrival, according to Polymarket and Kalshi odds

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California's billionaire tax might now be dead on arrival, according to Polymarket and Kalshi odds Kit Pulliam Tue, October 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM EDT 5 min read GOOG +0.76% POLA.PVT KLSH.PVT PLTR -0.57% We're less than a month away from California residents voting on Proposition 40 , a one-time, 5% tax on the assets of the state's billionaires. As you might expect, the measure has faced major pushback from California billionaires. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has spent more than $100 million fighting the bill, which is still magnitudes less than what he'd owe if the measure passed. Peter Thiel, the co-founder of Palantir Technologies, has also put millions of dollars toward fighting the tax. Jeff Bezos backs a platform that lets anyone invest in rental homes for as little as $100 — 6 ways to build wealth like a landlord without actually being one Dave Ramsey warns nearly 50% of Americans are making 1 big Social Security mistake. Here's what it is and 3 simple steps to fix it ASAP A single line on your car insurance policy could be inflating your premium by up to 30% — here's what to change California Gov. Gavin Newsom is also publicly against the tax , despite advocating for billionaire taxes on the national level. He is not expected to pay anything if the tax passes. If you believe what prediction markets have to say, the billionaires have no need to worry. The tax won't pass. But should you believe in what the prediction markets predict? These markets — which allow users to bet on the outcome of political events, among other things — have seen increased media scrutiny after they seemingly predicted Donald Trump would win the 2024 federal election more accurately than traditional political polls. But performing well in one political race doesn't mean prediction markets are expected to accurately predict how every vote will go. Here's what prediction markets are saying about California's billionaire tax vote compared to the polls — and why you might not want to bet it all on Polymarket just yet. As of Oct. 13, both Polymarket and Kalshi are bearish on the measure. Kalshi has the chances of the measure passing at 26% , while Polymarket's prediction hovers around 25% . In comparison, more traditional political polls still show "yes" voters ahead of "no" voters, although the path is far from clear. An early September poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that 52% of responders said they would vote "yes" on Proposition 40, compared to 46% who said they'd vote "no." The poll also found that a majority of voters would vote for measures that would heavily limit the power of the Prop 40 tax. The PPIC also found that "overwhelming majorities" thought the state ballot had too many propositions, and it's possible this had an impact on what people said they would vote "yes" or "no" on. Meanwhile, a September poll from Politico found that 46% of respondents would vote "yes" on the initiative, while 40% would vote "no." That's a significant change from Politico's February/March poll , where 50% said "yes" and only 28% said "no." The rise in no voters might be due to an increase in campaigning. The no side is undoubtedly the more well-funded side , considering how many billionaires are against the tax. "The campaign is just starting, and roughly a gazillion dollars are going to be spent on it," Jon Cohen, the founder of the company who fielded the poll, told Politico. So, while the polls still show voters are in favor of the tax, they still leave plenty of room for Prop 40's failure. Prediction markets, however, appear to be much more certain on how the Prop 40 vote will go down. Compared to traditional political polling, prediction markets have some unorthodox features that can skew the results. For starters, Polymarket bets can include international traders who may not hold the same amount of information that California residents do when it comes to the measure's chances. Furthermore, prediction markets can be swayed by a few big trades, which opens the door to wealthy traders artificially distorting the odds of a vote or an election. For example, in October 2024, four Polymarket accounts bet a combined $30 million on Trump winning the federal election. Before those bets, Kamala Harris had slightly better odds, but after the bets, Trump sat at 60% likely to win. Any prediction market on a statewide tax — even one that's in the news as much as Prop 40 — will likely have a much smaller trade volume than a presidential election, which could make the odds on this vote even easier to manipulate. Even with presidential elections, prediction markets are frequently unreliable. While they got the most recent Trump election correct, they were wrong about the three presidential election cycles before that vote. Millionaires under 43 hold only 32% of their wealth in stocks. Here's where their money is actually going Dave Ramsey says this 1 indulgent purchase stops Americans from becoming wealthy. Here's what he recommends instead The tax breaks in Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expire after 2028. Here are 4 moves to make before the window closes Your cash is rotting in a regular savings account. Here are 4 simple ways to grow your money (and no, you don't have to touch the stock market) This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com under the title: California's billionaire tax might now be dead on arrival, according to Polymarket and Kalshi odds This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.

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