Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion Performance Trails Broader Index Fund Returns

Yahoo Finance ·

On Friday, December 18, 2020, shares of electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla surged nearly 6 percent to conclude the session at a record peak of $695. Trading volume exceeded 200 million shares, representing over $131 billion in turnover and marking one of the busiest trading days in corporate history. S&P Dow Jones Indices had scheduled the automaker to enter the S&P 500 at full weight prior to the opening bell the following Monday, utilizing Friday's closing prices for the inclusion. Consequently, every index-tracking fund was effectively forced to acquire the stock at $695. Nearly six years later, an initial investment of $10,000 in Tesla would have appreciated to roughly $15,700 today. In contrast, allocating that exact same capital into a standard S&P 500 index fund would have expanded to approximately $20,500, excluding dividends.

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If you had invested $10,000 on December 18, 2020, when Tesla was added to the S&P 500 index, it would now be worth approximately $15,700. This is lower than the return of about $20,500 if you had invested in an S&P 500 index fund over the same period. It highlights the need to reevaluate long-term investment strategies by comparing the volatility of individual growth stocks with the performance of broader market indices.

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When added to the S&P 500, Tesla rose 6% to close at $695, but its subsequent returns fell short of the market-averaging S&P 500 index fund. This demonstrates the impact of high volatility and concentration in individual stocks on long-term investment performance.

In a bullish scenario, the re-acceleration of the EV market and the commercialization of autonomous driving technology could cause Tesla's stock to outperform the index, while in a bearish scenario, intensifying competition and shrinking margins could lead to continued underperformance relative to the index. Key monitoring metrics are delivery volume and operating profit margin.

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