NVIDIA Maintains Exceptional Growth Momentum Despite China Exclusion

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NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) proved that its near-term expansion does not rely on China Data Center compute sales. During the fiscal second quarter, total revenue reached $96.2 billion, soaring 106% year-over-year, while Data Center revenue hit $89.0 billion. Looking ahead, NVIDIA guided for $108.0 billion in fiscal third-quarter revenue, completely excluding any contribution from China. This ambitious outlook is underpinned by robust demand across customer segments, particularly AI clouds, enterprises, and sovereign buyers, known as ACIE, which jumped 138% from a year prior. Nevertheless, rising memory costs pose potential margin pressures, with management projecting gross margins to dip to 74.0% in the third quarter and potentially 71% to 72% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, supply commitments surged from $119 billion to $279 billion due to heavy memory procurement, while accounts receivable climbed to $63.1 billion with days sales outstanding rising to 60 days. Despite these rising commitments and margin headwinds, NVIDIA demonstrates powerful pricing strength and diversified demand.

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NVIDIA (NVDA) demonstrated robust growth, reporting Q2 revenue of $96.2 billion—a 106% surge year-over-year—even excluding data center computing sales from the Chinese market. Q3 guidance was also provided at $10.8 billion without assuming China sales, dispelling market concerns. However, the potential decline in future gross margins to 71%-72% due to rising memory costs and the surge in supply and capacity commitments to $279 billion are risk factors that investors should closely monitor.

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Despite the void in China data center revenue, NVIDIA posted better-than-expected results driven by explosive demand in the hyperscaler and ACIE (enterprise, AI cloud, etc.) segments (up 102% and 138% year-over-year, respectively). The Q3 revenue outlook of $108 billion reflects solid global AI infrastructure demand, but future margin contraction due to rising memory procurement costs, $279 billion in supply commitments, and an increase in days sales outstanding (from 45 to 60 days) could pose financial burdens.

In the bullish scenario, volume production of the Vera Rubin platform and diversified demand in the ACIE segment will offset margin pressures and drive stock gains. In the bearish scenario, memory cost pressures could intensify more than expected, dropping gross margins below 71% and stalling cash flow due to delayed customer payments. Key metrics to watch are actual Q3 gross margins and memory price trends.

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