Two Oil Refiners Surpass NVIDIA in Stock Performance

Yahoo Finance ·

Amid ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine affecting global energy markets, two U.S. refiners, HF Sinclair DINO and Par Pacific Holdings PARR, have significantly outperformed NVIDIA NVDA. According to the International Energy Agency, worldwide refinery throughput dropped by approximately 6% year over year in July due to disruptions from the Iran war and damage to Russian refining infrastructure. The IEA projects global throughput to decline by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, forcing American refiners to operate near maximum capacity and reap exceptional margins. Year to date, Par Pacific and HF Sinclair shares have surged 110.1% and 102.4%, respectively, easily beating NVDA's 14.3% gain. Both PARR and DINO currently hold a Zacks #1 Rank, signifying a Strong Buy rating amid tight global fuel inventories.

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Due to the aftermath of the Iran war and damages to Russian oil refineries, global refinery throughput in July plummeted 6% year-on-year, causing supply disruptions. In contrast, U.S. refiners maintained maximum operating rates and recorded exceptional refining margins, causing PARR and DINO shares to skyrocket by 110.1% and 102.4% respectively, outperforming NVDA's surge. Investors should focus on beneficiaries of the energy sector strength amid geopolitical risks.

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Global refining facility hits caused by the Middle East and Ukraine wars have triggered reduced fuel supplies and surging refining margins, directly leading to record-high earnings for U.S. refiners. With global refinery throughput expected to decrease by 2.5 million barrels per day on average in 2026, the prolongation of supply shortages and geopolitical tensions are expected to act as key stock price variables.

In the bullish scenario, high refining margins and robust fuel demand are sustained, leading to additional strong earnings for refiners, while in the bearish scenario, there is a possibility of oil price declines and demand slowdown due to the alleviation of geopolitical risks. As key indicators, IEA refinery throughput forecasts and individual companies' refining margin indexes per barrel should be monitored.

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