JPMorgan Sees Q3 Earnings Growth Broadening Past AI into Broader Sectors
Yahoo Finance ·
JPMorgan strategists anticipate that third-quarter corporate earnings will bolster equity markets, driven by signs that profit growth is broadening beyond artificial intelligence firms into a wider array of industries. According to IBES consensus estimates, S&P 500 earnings per share are projected to rise 24%, while FactSet and LSEG indicate a 30% increase factoring in Meta's tax adjustment. Excluding Nvidia and Micron Technology, expected growth drops to 15%. In Europe, consensus forecasts point to 19% earnings growth, which declines to 11% when excluding energy companies. JPMorgan noted these metrics imply that expectations across the wider market are less demanding than headline index forecasts suggest. The bank also highlighted improvements in global purchasing managers indices and proprietary indicators, supporting expectations of continued expansion over upcoming reporting periods.
AI 시장 분석
JPMorgan strategists forecast that Q3 corporate earnings growth will expand beyond AI-related companies to various sectors across the US and Europe. S&P 500 Q3 earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase by 24% according to IBES and 30% according to FactSet, while economic indicators such as improving global PMIs are also positive. However, some sectors like consumer staples, autos, and software are expected to underperform, requiring a selective approach from investors.
상승 영향
- Semiconductors — JPMorgan projects that beyond AI, semiconductor and industrial companies will post strong earnings exceeding market expectations and presented them as preferred sectors.
- Banks — European bank stocks have seen valuations drop by over 10% in recent weeks, but upcoming earnings reports are expected to defend against the stock price decline and provide support.
하락 영향
- Automobiles — Some sectors, such as European automotive companies, are excluded from the operating margin improvement trend and are expected to experience slowed earnings growth.
- Consumer Goods — Companies exposed to consumer staples and consumer spending are raising concerns of sluggish earnings, which could act as downward pressure on related stock prices.
DYAX 전담 분석
JPMorgan analyzes that Q3 corporate earnings growth will spread to a broader range of sectors beyond AI, such as semiconductors, industrials, and banks, providing support to the market. The S&P 500 earnings growth rate excluding NVDA and MU is 15%, and the European Stoxx 600 growth rate excluding energy is 11%, presenting a less burdensome picture than the headline figures.
Going forward, investors should monitor the persistence of earnings broadening away from AI concentration, global PMI indicators, and currency volatility. In a bullish scenario, a broad stock market rally is expected alongside economic recovery, but underperformance in certain sectors due to China exposure and rising energy costs could act as downward pressure.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
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