JPMorgan Issues First-Ever Bitcoin Long-Term Return Forecast at 10% Annually

Yahoo Finance · 2026-10-20

In its 31st annual long-term capital market assumptions report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10 percent compound annual return for Bitcoin over a 10 to 15 year horizon, marking its debut inclusion. This estimate outpaces the firm's outlook for U.S. large-cap equities at 7.5 percent, gold at 5.5 percent, and a traditional 60/40 portfolio at 7 percent. Despite claiming the top spot in return projections, Bitcoin was intentionally excluded from the institution's core portfolio models. The decision stems from its steep 55 percent annualized volatility and erratic correlations. Furthermore, the asset manager dismissed the bullish thesis regarding currency debasement as being wide of the mark, maintaining a cautious stance despite the high projected gains.

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JP Morgan Asset Management has projected Bitcoin's compound annual growth rate at 10% over the next 10 to 15 years, including it in long-term forecasts for the first time. This surpasses projections for US large caps (7.5%) and gold (5.5%). However, it was excluded from the core portfolio model due to an annualized volatility of 55% and unstable correlations. Investors must strictly manage extreme volatility risks alongside high expected returns.

상승 영향

Bitcoin — JP Morgan included Bitcoin in its long-term forecasts for the first time with an expected annual return of 10% for the next 10 to 15 years, raising long-term growth expectations and the possibility of institutional capital inflows.

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JP Morgan's latest forecast holds symbolic meaning as Bitcoin has been officially incorporated into Wall Street's mainstream asset forecasting models. A 10% return projection, higher than US large caps (7.5%) or gold (5.5%), raises expectations for institutional capital inflows into the digital asset market. However, its exclusion from the main portfolio model due to high volatility reaching 55% and unstable correlations remains a risk factor.

In a bullish scenario, institutional capital inflows would accelerate and Bitcoin demand surge, whereas in a bearish scenario, extreme volatility and regulatory issues could delay portfolio inclusion and trigger sell-offs. The adoption rate in institutional portfolios and the trend of volatility indicators must be closely monitored.

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