Analyzing Vanguard's Growth ETF Lag and What History Really Tells Us
Yahoo Finance ·
The Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF achieved a record closing price of $92.64 on Oct. 6, but has since pulled back by roughly 6% to trade around $87. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of less than 3% during the same timeframe. This puts the growth fund up approximately 7% for 2026, trailing the index's roughly 11% gain. Should this performance gap persist through December, it will mark the first calendar year since 2022 that the fund has lagged the S&P 500 on a price basis. A review of daily closes dating back to 2005 reveals that the fund underperformed the broader market in five full calendar years, subsequently rebounding to beat the index in the following year on four of those occasions. Nonetheless, market observers suggest that historical precedent may not be as predictive as it initially appears for future cycles.
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Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF has fallen about 6% from its October 6 peak, remaining at a 7% gain that trails the 2026 S&P 500 return of 11%. This marks the first time since 2022 that it is underperforming the index. While historically it tended to rebound the year following a sluggish year, current indicators do not guarantee an immediate recovery in 2027. Investors should carefully check the earnings momentum of individual growth stocks rather than relying on short-term historical statistics.
상승 영향
- Growth Stocks — Historically, large-cap growth stock ETFs have succeeded in rebounding with an 80% probability in the year following a year of underperformance relative to the index.
하락 영향
- Growth Stocks — VUG ETF has fallen 6% from its recent peak, recording sluggish performance that significantly lags behind the S&P 500's decline of -3%.
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VUG ETF's recent 6% correction exceeds the S&P 500 decline of -3%, reflecting a general weakening of growth stock momentum. Although the success rate of a rebound in the year following a sluggish year over the past 5 years reaches 80%, considering current valuation pressures and changing macro environments, it remains uncertain whether past patterns will repeat in 2027.
The bullish scenario is that major tech and growth companies prove earnings improvements alongside interest rate stabilization, regaining excess returns over the index. On the other hand, the bearish scenario is the persistence of a growth slowdown and the entrenchment of an underperformance trend relative to the index, requiring close monitoring of quarterly EPS growth and valuation metrics.
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