Prepare for the Inevitable Bear Market: Historical Lessons for Investors

Yahoo Finance · 2026-09-18

Historically, the U.S. stock market enters a bear market roughly once every three and a half years. October marked four full years since the conclusion of the 2022 downturn, during which the S&P 500 tumbled by approximately 25 percent, suggesting that another correction is statistically overdue. Although impressive year-to-date gains from equities like SanDisk, Moderna, and Dell Technologies might make a market slump seem unlikely at the moment, these downward cycles remain a vital mechanism for realistic asset repricing and laying the groundwork for future expansion. While the exact timing of the upcoming downturn stays unpredictable, historical precedent provides crucial guidance on how investors can navigate the turbulence and protect their portfolios from severe long-term damage.

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Historical statistics show that the U.S. stock market experiences a bear market on average every 3.5 years, and with four years having already passed since the end of the 2022 bear market, the likelihood of a downturn is increasing. This cyclical decline is essential for a realistic revaluation of assets and as a preparation process for the next growth period. Investors should review their portfolios in preparation for uncertain timing and establish strategies to minimize long-term losses.

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Stock Market — Considering the expansion phase exceeding the historical average cycle of 3.5 years and the elapsed time since 2022, the risk of entering a bear market accompanied by full-scale asset revaluation and price correction is high.

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As the prolonged upward trend continues following 2022 when the S&P 500 dropped by about 25%, concerns over overvaluation within the market and analyses suggesting that the time to enter a cyclical bear market is approaching have been raised. Despite solid year-to-date returns for SanDisk, Moderna, and Dell Technologies, downward pressure according to historical average cycles is a factor that cannot be ignored.

Scenarios coexist between a bear market scenario experiencing a full-scale stock price correction upon future macroeconomic indicator deterioration or unexpected shocks, and a scenario where the correction timing is delayed due to strong earnings momentum. Investors should monitor the technical support levels and volatility index of the S&P 500 while adjusting the proportion of defensive assets.

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