Amazon, Walmart Face Record $275 Billion Holiday Rush
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Amazon, Walmart Face Record $275 Billion Holiday Rush Moz Farooque ACCA Mon, September 28, 2026 at 3:43 PM EDT 2 min read AMZN ADBE WMT This article first appeared on GuruFocus . U.S. retailers could be heading into a record-breaking holiday season , with Adobe Analytics forecasting online spending will reach $275.1 billion between November 1 and December 31, up 6.7% year over year . Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Signs with AMZN. Is AMZN fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. The forecast suggests consumers may continue spending despite inflation, higher rates and softer confidence, although promotions are expected to play a major role in driving demand. Cyber Week alone is projected to generate $47.5 billion in online sales, up 7.4% from last year and representing 17.3% of total holiday e-commerce spending. Cyber Monday is expected to remain the biggest online shopping day, with consumers spending more than $15 billion . Black Friday is projected to generate $12.9 billion , up 9.2%, while Thanksgiving spending is expected to reach $6.9 billion, up 8.5%. Retailers will have to compete aggressively for that spending. Adobe expects discounts to reach as much as 14% in early November , climb to 21% just before Thanksgiving , and remain around 10% to 15% through December. Amazon ( NASDAQ:AMZN ) could also reshape the timing of holiday demand through its October Prime Day event. Adobe expects October online spending to hit $95.8 billion, up 8%, with nearly $10 billion spent during the October 6-7 Prime Day event. Electronics and apparel remain the biggest online categories, with projected holiday spending of $63.3 billion and $51.3 billion, respectively. For Amazon, Walmart ( NASDAQ:WMT ) and other major retailers, the headline record matters less than how much discounting is required to produce it . Stronger online demand should support sales volumes, but deeper promotions could pressure margins if retailers mismanage inventory or lean too heavily on discounts. Investors should therefore watch e-commerce growth, promotional intensity, inventory levels and gross margins through October and Cyber Week. The holiday season may set a spending record, but profitability will determine which retailers actually benefit.
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