Rosenblatt names top semiconductor picks amid data-center strength

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Ahead of the earnings season, Rosenblatt Securities has designated AMD as its premier semiconductor selection, highlighting robust data-center fundamentals and expanding demand despite a recent sector-wide share price pullback averaging 25% over the past month. The firm points to strong performances and positive pre-announcements from major industry players like TSMC, Micron, and Penguin Solutions. A key catalyst for AMD is TSMC's anticipated doubling of 2.nm capacity in 2027, which will facilitate the rollout of the high-performance Venice server CPU. Furthermore, AMD CEO Lisa Su recently elevated the 2030 server CPU total addressable market projection to $220 billion from $120 billion. Emerging artificial intelligence applications, including Meta's Muse, are accelerating server CPU demand. While supply-chain constraints noted by Lam Research and Texas Instruments remain a point of discussion, Rosenblatt views these as manageable tactical hurdles rather than indicators of waning demand, favoring companies capable of scaling capacity to meet robust market needs.

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Rosenblatt Securities selected AMD as its top semiconductor pick based on strong data center fundamentals. Despite a 25% average drop in semiconductor stocks over the past month, strong earnings from companies like TSMC and Micron support this view. Investors should focus on TSMC doubling its 2nm capacity and AMD launching its Venice server CPUs in 2027.

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Rosenblatt projects that the server CPU market will grow to $22.0 billion by 2030, driven by personal AI agents such as Meta's Muse boosting server CPU demand. Supply chain constraints mentioned by companies like Lam Research are merely tactical challenges rather than a structural demand slowdown.

The bull case is that data center demand will overcome supply constraints and continue explosive growth, while the bear case is production disruptions caused by extended equipment lead times. Future monitoring must focus on whether supply chain bottlenecks are resolved and the earnings of major companies.

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