Amazon Q3 Preview: AWS Growth Set to Drive Results

Yahoo Finance ·

Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) is projected to post a 12% rise in third-quarter revenue on Wednesday, as investors focus on accelerated momentum within its Amazon Web Services cloud division and proof that artificial intelligence investments are bearing fruit. Wall Street anticipates revenue of roughly $202.2 billion for the quarter ending September 30, 2026, with earnings per share estimated between $1.96 and $2.01. AWS is forecasted to anchor expansion, with consensus pointing to revenue between $45.4 billion and $45.6 billion, representing a 37% to 38% surge from $33 billion a year prior. Bank of America models an even higher AWS growth rate of 40%, fueled by expanded computing capacity, pricing adjustments, and growing enterprise AI adoption. Furthermore, Bank of America projects total revenue of $202 billion and operating income of $26.4 billion.

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Amazon is expected to report a 12% increase in Q3 revenue to $202.2 billion, with the AWS cloud division leading the growth at 37-38%. The success of AI investments and the sustainability of AWS profitability will be key stock drivers. Investors should focus on Q4 guidance and the return on investment for AI infrastructure.

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Amazon's Q3 performance is expected to be positive, driven by the high growth of AWS (expected revenue of $45.4B to $45.6B). The increased adoption of Trainium AI chips and the Bedrock platform will contribute to margin defense.

The bull case is AWS exceeding expectations with over 40% growth to prove AI investment value, while the bear case is a slowdown in retail consumption and failure to meet high expectations. Key metrics include the AWS operating margin (maintaining 39%) and Q4 revenue guidance.

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