Nvidia Denies China Chip Report Ahead of Pivotal Earnings

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Nvidia refuted a media report regarding year-end shipments of a China-tailored LPU chip just days before its fiscal second-quarter earnings release on August 26. The company guided revenue to $91.0 billion, assuming zero compute revenue from China, while maintaining a gross margin target near 75%. Institutional interest remains robust, with hedge fund ownership rising to 275 funds and short interest staying low at 1.26%. However, challenges include decelerating sequential growth and risks tied to Nvidia's stake in SpaceX, which continues to burn cash rapidly while expanding its AI infrastructure to target 10 gigawatts by late 2027.

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Ahead of its Q2 earnings release on August 26, NVIDIA (NVDA) denied reports regarding the launch of a China-bound LPU chip. The company provided a Q2 revenue guidance of $91 billion, excluding any contribution from the Chinese market. Amid growing attention on SpaceX's massive AI infrastructure investment and NVIDIA's stake holding, investors are closely watching whether the 75% gross margin can be maintained and if sequential growth is slowing down.

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Despite denying rumors of launching customized chips for China, NVIDIA has entered a phase where it must prove solid fundamentals with a Q2 revenue guidance of $91 billion and a target gross margin of 75%. Notably, with China revenue excluded, SpaceX's $150B-$250B AI infrastructure investment and stake-related risks are expected to act as key variables for stock volatility.

The bullish scenario involves defending the 75% gross margin and reporting earnings that exceed guidance, while the bearish scenario centers on slowing sequential growth, capital burn by SpaceX, and pressures from lock-up expirations. Investors must closely monitor gross margin trends and guidance achievement in the upcoming earnings release.

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