KeyBanc warns Apple’s iPhone 18 launch may be a negative catalyst for shares
Yahoo Finance ·
KeyBanc Capital Markets cautioned that Apple's September 9 iPhone launch event could act as a negative catalyst for the stock as investors concentrate on pricing dynamics and how elevated costs might influence demand and profit margins. In a research report, the firm kept its Underweight rating on Apple alongside a $250 price target, contrasting with the noted share price of $324.96. KeyBanc anticipates the unveiling of the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, and a first-generation foldable iPhone dubbed Fold/Ultra, alongside new Apple Watch iterations and AirPods. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal 2027, KeyBanc projects total iPhone 18 production to reach approximately 80 million units, declining from roughly 91 million units a year prior. Historically, Apple shares have frequently drifted lower during iPhone release periods, according to the brokerage data.
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KeyBanc warned that the launch of the iPhone 18 series could act as a negative catalyst for Apple's stock. Concerns over declining shipments and margin pressure due to price hikes from rising costs have emerged, with production of new products like the iPhone 18 Pro expected to drop to 80 million units from 91 million units a year ago. Investors should note that historically, the stock has shown weakness around iPhone announcements.
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- Smartphones — Concerns over slowing demand across related component suppliers and the smartphone ecosystem have grown due to Apple's iPhone 18 series price hikes and reduced shipments, which are projected to shrink from 91 million to 80 million units.
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KeyBanc modeled that Apple will raise the iPhone 18 Pro price by $150 to $1,249 and set the foldable model at $2,199 to offset gross margin pressure. Such price increases may trigger consumer price resistance, leading to lower sales volumes. Historically, Apple's stock tends to fall by an average of 0.72% on the day of the announcement and 1.22% five trading days later.
In the bullish scenario, a higher average selling price (ASP) could offset volume declines and defend margins, whereas in the bearish scenario, a sharp drop in shipments and margin contraction due to price resistance would accelerate the stock decline. Future shipment data and initial sales reactions will be key indicators.
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