Tesla Stock Fell After Its Last 4 Delivery Reports, Even a Big Beat. Here's What History Says to Expect in October.

Yahoo Finance ·

Over the past year, Tesla ( TSLA -1.04% ) has handed investors four quarterly delivery reports, and its stock fell on the day of every one of them. That includes July 2, when the electric-car maker reported 480,126 second-quarter deliveries, about 74,000 more than analysts were expecting, and shares dropped about 7% anyway. These weren't bad market days, either. The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC -0.23% ) finished close to flat on all four dates. The selling was about Tesla. The next count will likely arrive in early October, if Tesla holds to its recent schedule. Here's what the past year of report days says, and what it doesn't.

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Tesla (TSLA) has seen its stock decline on every delivery announcement day over the past four quarters, despite reporting better-than-expected results. In July, despite second-quarter deliveries of 481,260 units beating forecasts by over 70,000, the stock plunged 7%. This is analyzed as a result of disappointment-driven selling specific to Tesla, independent of broader market weakness. Investors should exercise caution regarding this volatility ahead of the upcoming October delivery announcement.

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Tesla showed an unusual pattern where its stock fell 7% on the day of the announcement despite achieving deliveries (481,260 units) that beat market expectations. The main reasons for this were high expectations already priced into the stock and a lack of additional growth momentum, which dampened investor sentiment.

If the upcoming October delivery announcement fails to meet excessive market expectations once again, further declines could occur. Therefore, along with increased stock volatility right before the earnings release, actual delivery figures and future margin trends must be monitored as key indicators.

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