Tesla Stock Drops After-Hours as Capex Guidance Cut to $20B and Optimus Timeline Shifted
Yahoo Finance ·
Tesla shares reversed earlier after-hours gains, dropping 4% during the third-quarter earnings call after management lowered its full-year capital expenditure guidance to approximately $20 billion from over $25 billion. For the quarter ended September 30, the electric vehicle maker posted revenue of $28.0 billion, missing the $28.3 billion analyst consensus, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.48, topping the expected $0.45. Both top and bottom lines declined compared to the same period in 2025. CFO Vaibhav Taneja noted the capex revision stems from efficient capital deployment. CEO Elon Musk stated that reaching an annualized production rate of 20,000 Optimus units a week will likely take at least a year or slightly longer. Meanwhile, Tesla ended the quarter with over $1.5 billion in positive free cash flow and a total cash and investment reserve exceeding $45 billion.
AI 시장 분석
Tesla reported Q3 revenue of $28.0 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.48, but lowered its full-year capital expenditure (Capex) guidance from over $25.0 billion to approximately $20.0 billion. In addition, delays in the mass production of the humanoid robot Optimus and EU FSD approval schedules caused shares to reverse downward in after-hours trading. Investors are focusing on the delays in core growth drivers despite efforts to improve capital efficiency.
하락 영향
- Electric Vehicles — As Tesla lowered its annual Capex guidance to $20.0 billion and delayed the mass production schedule for Optimus, short-term concerns regarding EV and robotics growth potential have intensified, increasing downward pressure on the stock price.
DYAX 전담 분석
Tesla's reduction in Capex guidance to $20.0 billion and the delay in Optimus mass production (taking at least over a year to reach 20,000 units per week) form a negative causal relationship with short-term sentiment. Revenue falling short of the estimated $28.3 billion and declining year-over-year also stimulates concerns over growth deceleration.
The bullish scenario involves the acceleration of EU-wide FSD approval and Cybercab commercialization, achieving cost reductions ($0.30 per mile), while the bearish scenario involves further delays in Optimus and FSD putting pressure on growth stock valuations. Key factors to watch going forward include the sustainability of free cash flow (above $1.5 billion) and FSD regulatory approval schedules.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
DYAX Investor Sentiment
Bullish (Long) 56% · Bearish (Short) 44%
439 participants
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