IREN Receives Two-Notch Upgrade to Overweight at JPMorgan on Strong Neocloud Pricing

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JPMorgan has lifted its rating on IREN Ltd. to Overweight from Underweight, while boosting its price target significantly from $46 to $65. The aggressive adjustment follows IREN's strengthening positioning as a premier neocloud provider driven by its alliance with Nvidia, alongside accelerating customer adoption. Despite the bullish report, IREN shares retreated 3.83% during intraday trading. Industry pricing has climbed noticeably to a range of $15 to $20 per watt or higher, shifting upward from prior $10 to $15 levels. Consequently, JPMorgan anticipates that IREN's upcoming 0.5-gigawatt expansion slated for 2027 will secure substantially richer pricing compared to historical $12 to $15 per watt agreements. Furthermore, IREN elevated its projected annual recurring revenue for late calendar 2026 to $4.0 billion, up from $3.4 billion previously, compared to $1 billion of operating ARR currently. The company has successfully delivered the initial 50-megawatt facility under its Microsoft contract, with the remaining 150 megawatts scheduled for completion by the end of calendar 2026. Additional key clientele includes Prometheus, Figure AI, Perplexity, Together AI, Fluidstack, and Cohere, alongside an undisclosed multi-year AI lab partner. Meanwhile, JPMorgan highlighted the Texas interconnection audit as a potential near-term hurdle for the 2027 expansion roadmap.

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JP Morgan significantly raised IREN's price target from $46 to $65 and upgraded its rating to Overweight. Driven by the partnership with NVIDIA and rising Neocloud pricing, the 2026 year-end annual recurring revenue (ARR) forecast was also raised from the previous $3.4 billion to $4 billion. Investors should closely monitor future data center expansions and AI customer contract trends.

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IREN's profitability is expected to improve significantly as Neocloud pricing rises from $10-$15 per watt to over $15-$20. Contracts with Microsoft and major AI companies are accelerating, securing long-term growth drivers.

In the bullish scenario, high contract rates and the 0.5 GW 2027 expansion plan will drive earnings growth. Conversely, in the bearish scenario, regulatory risks such as Texas grid interconnection audits could disrupt pipeline progress, requiring close monitoring of relevant regulatory indicators.

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