Will AI Stocks Defy September's Historical Market Curse?
Yahoo Finance ·
Historically, September has been a brutal month for the stock market. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.2% decline during this month, making it the only calendar month with a negative long-run average, posting gains just 44% of the time. However, propelled by artificial intelligence shares, this September could break the grim trend. The year 2026 has witnessed a massive capital rotation, with significant funds shifting away from a few AI megacaps into energy, industrials, materials, consumer staples, and small-cap equities. The metrics highlight this stark trend: the iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF surged roughly 32% over the past year, easily outpacing the 14% gain recorded by the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF. Furthermore, July featured a sharp reallocation where the energy sector climbed 12.13% while the technology sector dropped 7.96%.
AI 시장 분석
Historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500, with an average decline of 1.2%, but this year attention is focused on whether artificial intelligence (AI) stocks will rebound. Over the past eight months, a Great Rotation occurred, moving massive capital from mega-cap AI stocks to energy, industrials, and materials. Recently, the Russell 1000 Value ETF rose 32% while the Growth ETF lagged at 14%, and in July, the energy sector surged 12.13% while tech stocks fell 7.96%. Investors should closely monitor the potential rebound of AI-related stocks and the continuation of sector rotation amid September's seasonal weakness.
상승 영향
- Energy — Benefiting from accelerated capital inflows, driven by the massive Great Rotation over the past eight months and a 12.13% surge in July.
- Value Stocks — The iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF recorded a high return of about 32% over the past year, outperforming growth stocks (14%).
하락 영향
- Technology — Facing capital outflow pressures amid historical September seasonality where the S&P 500 averages a 1.2% decline, alongside a 7.96% drop in tech stocks in July.
- Stock Market — General downward market pressure exists due to seasonal weakness patterns—where September has only a 44% probability of rising since 1928—and capital outflows from mega-cap AI stocks.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
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