Large U.S. banks face rising G-SIB buffers and tighter excess capital: GS
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Large U.S. banks face rising G-SIB buffers and tighter excess capital: GS Sam Boughedda Wed, September 2, 2026 at 2:14 PM EDT 1 min read GS JPM BAC Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs believes the largest U.S. banks are likely to moderate capital deployment as regulatory buffers rise for a third consecutive year and excess capital levels shrink. The bank said in a note Wednesday that it expects lenders to pull back "given that excess capital levels have fallen, G-SIB scores have increased YTD, after also increasing in both 2024 and 2025, and the final details on regulatory capital reform are still pending," analyst Richard Ramsden wrote. Five of the seven global systemically important banks (JPM, WFC, BAC, C, MS, BNY, STT) have moved up one or more G-SIB buckets so far this year, and Goldman said none of the top five is expected to mitigate scores enough to drop a bucket by year-end. Ramsden notes that second-quarter G-SIB scores rose 23 basis points quarter over quarter, with the largest increases at JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. JPMorgan is up two buckets year to date and now sits in the 7.0% bucket. The top seven banks hold an estimated $78 billion of excess capital, but Goldman said that falls to $55 billion in 2027 and $20 billion in 2028 as prior G-SIB increases take effect with a two-year lag. Factoring in higher buffers, excess capital could swing to a $21 billion deficit by 2029. With bank price-to-tangible-book values at 2.1 times, Goldman sees buybacks as less attractive than balance sheet expansion, assuming a 15% increase in total capital return in 2026. Large U.S. banks face rising G-SIB buffers and tighter excess capital: GS As Claude disrupts stock market, Anthropic researcher warns 'world is in peril' Wolfe Research outlines eight risks that could spark stock declines in 2026
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