TREASURY WRAP: T-NOTE FUTURES (U6) SETTLE 10+ TICKS LOWER 108-22+
Newsquawk ·
T-notes sold in response to rising oil prices and a hawkish Waller ahead of CPI and Chair Warsh . At settlement, 2-year +5.7bps at 4.269%, 3-year +5.7bps at 4.304%, 5-year +6.1bps at 4.367%, 7-year +6.4bps at 4.487%, 10-year +5.5bps at 4.616%, 20-year +4.8bps at 5.118%, 30-year +4.3bps at 5.102%. THE DAY : Treasuries were weaker across the curve on Monday, with the curve bear flattening as renewed geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed commentary lifted inflation expectations. Overnight, continued US-Iran tensions supported crude prices, while President Trump announced the US would take control of the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% charge on all cargo vessels transiting the waterway. Trump also said the US would reinstate its blockade on Iran, providing further support to energy prices. Crude was additionally underpinned by ongoing attacks involving Yemen and Saudi Arabia, reinforcing concerns over regional energy security. Alongside the geopolitical backdrop, hawkish remarks from Fe
AI 시장 분석
Rising interest rates and higher oil prices caused T-bonds to decline. Interest rate expectations for 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year rates all increased by 5.3-6.4bp. As a result, investors should prepare for the high-interest rate era.
상승 영향
- Semiconductors — The semiconductor industry is expected to be robust in the high-interest rate era, as it has relatively low sensitivity to interest rates. With higher interest rates, companies may see increased profitability.
- Electric Vehicles — The electric vehicle industry has relatively low sensitivity to interest rates and is expected to perform well in the high-interest rate era. Higher interest rates may lead to increased company profitability.
- AI — The AI industry has relatively low sensitivity to interest rates and is expected to perform well in the high-interest rate era. Higher interest rates may lead to increased company profitability.
- Biotechnology — The biotechnology industry has relatively low sensitivity to interest rates and is expected to perform well in the high-interest rate era. Higher interest rates may lead to increased company profitability.
하락 영향
- Oil — Oil prices may decline in the high-interest rate era, as they are sensitive to interest rates. Higher interest rates may lead to decreased company profitability.
- Defense — The defense industry is sensitive to interest rates and may decline in the high-interest rate era. Higher interest rates may lead to decreased company profitability.
- Bitcoin — Bitcoin prices are sensitive to interest rates and may decline in the high-interest rate era. Higher interest rates may lead to decreased company profitability.
DYAX 전담 분석
The interest rate hike expectation led to a decline in T-bonds. With rising interest rates, investors should be cautious to prepare for the high-interest rate era.
This is a crucial reminder for investors to review their portfolios and make necessary adjustments to mitigate potential losses.
AI가 생성한 분석으로 투자 자문이 아닙니다.
DYAX Investor Sentiment
Bullish (Long) 44% · Bearish (Short) 56%
349 participants
Related News
- Chinese Balance of Trade Yuan (Jun) 859.05B vs. Exp. 820B (Prev. 723.98B)
- Chinese Balance of Trade (Jun) 125.8B vs. Exp. 121B (Prev. 105.43B)
- China Customs Vice Minister says this year's increase in China's trade has been strong and momentum stable
- US President Trump says he thinks an Iran deal is possible
- US FX WRAP: Dollar gains on Waller and risk-off
- US EQUITY OPEN: Tech hit hard as SK Hynix concerns weigh on broader tech