RBA Deputy Governor Hauser says inflation is too high, adds monetary policy needs to bring inflation down and needs to reduce demand in the economy
Newsquawk ·
Worried about inflation and upside risk to inflation. If inflation doesn't come down, will have to raise rates again. Deputy governors carrying the explicit conditionality of 'if inflation doesn't come down, will have to raise rates again' is a step up from generic hawkishness: it ties the reaction function to a stated trigger, which is the form of language that has historically moved the front of the Australian curve rather than the belly. The pairing of 'not seeing recession, just a slowdown' with upside inflation risk is the classic late-cycle holding pattern, in which the board keeps optionality on further tightening while signalling the economy can absorb it; comparable rhetoric from this institution in past tightening phases has tended to precede either a follow-through hike or a prolonged restrictive hold, not a pivot. The distinction worth drawing is between the deputy reinforcing an existing consensus and the deputy front-running the governor: remarks from the number two have on previous occasions served as a softener for a board decision, but also as internal disagreement surfacing early. Transmission runs through short-dated bill futures and the AUD rate differential rather than the long end, where domestic inflation rhetoric competes with the global duration bid. Follow-ons are the tone of other RBA speakers, the next quarterly inflation print as the named trigger, and whether the language migrates into the post-meeting statement, which is where rhetoric becomes pricing.
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