No quick fix to lowering gas prices despite Trump's protests, Chevron exec says
Seeking Alpha ·
U.S. gasoline prices will fall if oil exports from the Middle East continue to normalize, but t here's no quick fix in bringing down gasoline prices at the pump in line with lower crude oil prices, Chevron ( CVX
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A Chevron(CVX) executive said that if Middle East crude exports normalize, gasoline prices could fall, but declines in crude prices are unlikely to be passed through to pump prices immediately. Because of large lags from refining, distribution, taxes, inventories and contract structures, consumer relief will be delayed. This will in the short term weigh on the profitability of oil-producing countries and upstream firms while potentially providing refiners with an opportunity to widen refining margins. Political pressure (e.g., Trump’s protests) could prompt short-term policy responses, but real price relief is likely to be gradual.
상승 영향
- Refiners — Because crude price declines are not immediately reflected in product prices, refining margins (crack spreads) can widen, making it likely that refiners' profitability improves in the short term.
- Airlines & Transportation — If Middle East exports normalize and fuel costs decline, airlines, shipping and logistics firms would see lower fuel expenses, improving their medium-to-long-term profitability.
- Consumer discretionary (Retail & Durable — Lower fuel costs increase household disposable income and can stimulate consumption, supporting demand recovery for retail, restaurants and durable goods.
하락 영향
- Crude oil — Normalization of Middle East exports would increase global crude supply and put downside pressure on oil prices, squeezing revenues and profits of producing countries and crude producers.
- Oil majors (Upstream) — Falling oil prices reduce the profitability and cash flow of upstream development for firms like CVX, leading to potential cuts in investment and negative effects on dividend and buyback policies.
- Retail gasoline (service stations & conv — Pump prices adjust downward more slowly than crude, which can cause short-term consumer dissatisfaction and demand weakness while increasing sales and inventory-adjustment burdens for service stations and convenience stores.
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