Fed’s preferred inflation gauge set for downward revision
Seeking Alpha ·
Changes to the way the U.S. government calculates several service prices are expected to lower the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying inflation, potentially easing some pressure on policymakers considering another interest-rate increase, The Wall Street Journal reported.
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The U.S. government's revision of the service inflation calculation method is expected to downwardly adjust the Fed's preferred core inflation metric. This will ease the Fed's policy pressure regarding further rate hikes and reduce market fears of tightening. Investors should closely monitor market volatility for dovish signals regarding future interest rate decisions.
상승 영향
- Technology — Lower inflation metrics suggest an easing of the high-interest-rate environment, leading to a decrease in discount rates, which is a major tailwind for growth and tech stocks.
- Real Estate — Reduced pressure from interest rate hikes is expected to stabilize mortgage rates, likely improving investment sentiment and increasing transaction volumes in the real estate market.
DYAX 전담 분석
The methodological change in service inflation measurement is technically deflationary for core indices. By aligning these calculations more accurately with current market dynamics, the Federal Reserve may find more flexibility in its monetary policy. This adjustment could provide a crucial pivot point, potentially curbing the aggressive hawkish rhetoric that has dominated recent market sentiment.
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