Mizuho downgrades Circle to underperform, cuts price target to $50 on Open USD threat
COINDESK ·
That model could pressure Circle's distribution partners to demand a larger share of reserve income over time, particularly as the company prepares to renegotiate its revenue-sharing agreement with Coinbase, its largest distribution partner, in August. Coinbase's support for OpenUSD could strengthen its negotiating position, the report added. Reflecting that risk, Mizuho raised its estimate for Circle's distribution and transaction costs in 2027 to 73% from 64%, cutting its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $699 million from $1.09 billion. The new estimate is roughly 25% below analyst consensus of $941 million. While the bank now expects somewhat higher interest rates in 2027 than previously forecast, it said higher reserve yields would not be enough to offset pricing pressure. The stablecoin issuer is facing other headwinds. Hyperliquid's deal with Circle and Coinbase creates a "prisoner's dilemma" that puts pressure on earnings from the dollar-pegged stablecoin, Wall Street bank JPMorgan said in a Tuesday research report.
AI 시장 분석
Mizuho Securities downgraded Circle to Underperform with a price target of $50, citing concerns that the emergence of Open USD will intensify competition and threaten Circle's market share. Investors should closely monitor shifts in the stablecoin landscape and Circle's ability to defend its profitability.
상승 영향
- Crypto Infrastructure — The emergence of new stablecoin standards like Open USD enhances the efficiency of the overall crypto payment market and accelerates ecosystem expansion, creating opportunities for infrastructure providers.
하락 영향
- Stablecoins — Circle's market dominance is likely to weaken due to competition from Open USD, leading to lower issuance volume and declining profitability, which negatively impacts corporate valuation.
DYAX 전담 분석
Mizuho's downgrade reflects structural concerns regarding the stablecoin industry. As new standards like Open USD gain traction, the moat surrounding established players like Circle is expected to shrink.
The increasing competition is likely to exert pressure on margins and limit the potential for growth in issuance volume, prompting a more cautious outlook on the company's valuation.
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